Five of the seven states expected to be pivotal battlegrounds in the 2024 presidential election have populations that closely mirror the overall U.S. demographic and socioeconomic profile.


Traditionally, the presidential election season has kicked off with the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. However, this practice has faced criticism for privileging two of the smallest and least diverse states in terms of racial and ethnic makeup.


Despite the criticism, Iowa and New Hampshire initiated the election process once again in 2024. Notably, the Democratic Party did not officially participate in the New Hampshire primary, where President Joe Biden secured a win as a write-in candidate.


Instead, the Democrats set their first official primary in South Carolina, a state that more closely reflects the U.S. demographic profile than New Hampshire, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.


Our research shows that some states are even more representative of the U.S. population than South Carolina. In fact, New Hampshire ranks among the states least similar to the nation overall. This analysis highlights which states have significant political influence during election seasons and which ones might deserve more attention.


### Examining Population Data

Using the 2022 American Community Survey from the Census Bureau, we compared each state to the national average based on five key characteristics:


- **Racial and ethnic composition:** The proportion of people identifying as Latino, non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, Black, Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander, white, some other race, or two or more races.

- **Age-gender distribution:** The proportion of males and females across various age groups, noting the Census Bureau only offers two options for gender identity.

- **Educational attainment:** The proportion of people with varying levels of education, from grade school to advanced academic degrees.

- **Household income:** The proportion of households reporting income across a range from less than $10,000 to $200,000 or more.

- **Occupational distribution:** The proportion of workers in different broad job sectors, such as farming, construction, or sales.


We utilized the dissimilarity index, a statistical method, to gauge how closely each state aligns with the national demographic and socioeconomic profile. A score of zero indicates a perfect match with the national profile, while a score of 100 indicates complete dissimilarity.


Each state was ranked based on its scores across these characteristics, and the average of these rankings was used to list the states from most to least similar to the U.S. as a whole.


### Finding the Similarities

In 2022, Illinois emerged as the state most resembling the entire country. Illinois matched the national profile closely in terms of race-ethnicity breakdown, age-gender distribution, and household income distribution. It ranked second in educational attainment similarity and fourth in occupational distribution.


This finding is particularly interesting given the long-standing notion encapsulated in the question, “Will it play in Peoria?” Historically, Peoria, Illinois, has been seen as a microcosm of the nation, an ideal place to gauge public opinion on political campaigns and proposed legislation. Our analysis confirms that Illinois, the state where Peoria is located, indeed reflects the broader U.S. population remarkably well.